Community simulations

Aerial view of tractor ploughing dry, brown field

CANARI is producing a range of novel climate, weather, ocean and hydrological model simulations for use by the wider science community. Details will be added here as these are produced.

The CANARI HadGEM3 Large Ensemble

We are developing a Large Ensemble (LE) – or Single-Model Initial Condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) – of climate model simulations. Large Ensembles allow for a better sampling of extreme events, and to delineate forced climate change from natural internal variability; both the aspects relate to several of the CANARI science questions.

The main characteristics of the CANARI LE are:

  • We use the HadGEM3-GC3.1 physical climate model, i.e. the same model used by the Met Office for CMIP6. The atmosphere resolution is N216 (about 60 km at midlatitudes) and 1/4° in the ocean (ORCA-0.25).
  • We are running the CMIP6 historical and SSP3-7.0 all-forcings experiments, for 1950-2014 and 2015-2100, respectively.
  • The CANARI LE will have 40 ensemble members.
  • We use the SSP3-7.0 scenario which is based on a narrative of regional rivalry, slow economic growth, and high challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Compared to the highest forcing (worst case) SSP5-8.5 scenario, SSP3-7.0 is characterised by somewhat smaller CO2 emissions but greater population, aerosol emissions, and land-use change (deforestation). A strong all-forcing scenario is required to reflect the CANARI focus on rapid and disruptive change. SSP3-7.0 meets this requirement while avoiding a large investment in the worst-case, and arguably too unlikely, projections resulting from the combination of SSP5-8.5 with HadGEM3-GC3.1’s high climate sensitivity (5.4 K).

For further information on the CANARI HadGEM3 LE, please contact Dr Reinhard Schiemann.