Publications

Our science publications

The first outputs from CANARI are now reaching publication stage – check back regularly for updates.

Dong, B. and Sutton, R.T., 2025. Drivers and mechanisms contributing to excess warming in Europe during recent decades. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00930-3 

Marshall, G.J., 2025. An examination of changes in autumn Eurasian snow cover and its relationship with the winter Arctic Oscillation using 20th Century Reanalysis version 3. The Cryosphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-663-2025 

Maraun, D., Schiemann, R., Ossó, A. and Jury, M., 2025. Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56109-0 

Schaffer, A., Lichtenegger, T., Truhetz, H., Ossó, A., Martínez‐Alvarado, O. and Maraun, D., 2024. Drivers of cold frontal hourly extreme precipitation: A climatological study over Europe. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111025

Wright, M.J., Weisheimer, A. and Woollings, T., 2024. Multi‐decadal skill variability in predicting the spatial patterns of ENSO events. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107971 

Leeming, K.A., Bloomfield, J.P., Coxon, G. and Zheng, Y., 2024. Functional data analysis to investigate controls on and changes in the seasonality of UK baseflow. Hydrological Sciences Journal. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2434714

Ermis, S., Leach, N.J., Lott, F.C., Sparrow, S.N. and Weisheimer, A., 2024. Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts. Environmental Research: Climate. https://doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad4200 

Dong, B., Aksenov, Y.Y., Colfescu, I., Harvey, B., Hirschi, J., Josey, S., Lu, H., Mecking, J., Oltmanns, M., Osprey, S. and Robson, J., 2024. Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1 

Yin, Z., Dong, B., Wei, W. and Yang, S., 2024. Anthropogenic impacts on amplified midlatitude European summer warming and rapid increase of heatwaves in recent decades. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108982 

Tooth, O.J., Foukal, N.P., Johns, W.E., Johnson, H.L. and Wilson, C., 2024. Lagrangian decomposition of the Atlantic Ocean heat transport at 26.5 N. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107399 

Spaiser, V., Juhola, S., Constantino, S.M., Guo, W., Watson, T., Sillmann, J., Craparo, A., Basel, A., Bruun, J.T., Krishnamurthy, K. and Scheffran, J., 2024. Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024

Reintges, A., Robson, J.I., Sutton, R.  and Yeager, S.G., 2024. Subpolar North Atlantic mean state affects the response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 models. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0470.1 

Patterson, M., O’Reilly, C. , Robson, J.  and Woollings, T., 2024. Disentangling North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere coupling using circulation analogues. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0602.1 

Zhao, A. , Robson, J. , Sutton, R. , Lai, M.W.K., Mecking, J.V., Yeager, S. and Petit, T. , 2024. Large diversity in AMOC internal variability across NEMO-based climate models. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07069-y 

Kim, W.M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Zhao, A. , Yeager, S. and Robson, J., 2024. North Atlantic response to observed North Atlantic oscillation surface heat flux in three climate models. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0301.1 

Senapati, B. , O’Reilly, C.H.  and Robson, J., 2024. Pivotal role of mixed-layer depth in Tropical Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110057

Charlton-Perez, A.J., Dacre, H.F., Driscoll, S., Gray, S.L., Harvey, B., Harvey, N.J., Hunt, K.M., Lee, R.W., Swaminathan, R., Vandaele, R. and Volonté, A., 2024. Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciarán. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00638-w

Jaison, A.M., Gray, L.J., Osprey, S.M., Knight, J.R. and Andrews, M.B., 2024. Role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in alleviating biases in the semi-annual oscillation. Weather and Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1489-2024

Baker, L.H., Shaffrey, L.C., Johnson, S.J. and Weisheimer, A., 2024. Understanding the intermittency of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S multi‐model ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108472

Collingwood, E., Scaife, A.A., Lu, H., Sinha, B., King, J., Marsh, R. and Marshall, G., 2024. Meridional wind in the upper stratosphere: A source of winter NAO predictability. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111717

Gray, S.L., Volonté, A., Martínez-Alvarado, O. and Harvey, B.J., 2024. A global climatology of sting-jet extratropical cyclones. Weather and Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024

Wise, A., Calafat, F.M., Hughes, C.W., Jevrejeva, S., Katsman, C.A., Oelsmann, J., Piecuch, C., Polton, J. and Richter, K., 2024. Using shelf‐edge transport composition and sensitivity experiments to understand processes driving sea level on the Northwest European shelf. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020587

Weisheimer, A., Baker, L.H., Bröcker, J., Garfinkel, C.I., Hardiman, S.C., Hodson, D.L., Palmer, T.N., Robson, J.I., Scaife, A.A., Screen, J.A. and Shepherd, T.G., 2024. The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0019.1

Moat, B.I., Sinha, B., Berry, D.I., Drijfhout, S.S., Fraser, N., Hermanson, L., Jones, D.C., Josey, S.A., King, B., Macintosh, C. and Megann, A., 2024. Ocean Heat Convergence and North Atlantic multidecadal heat content variability. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0370.1

Chan, W.C.H., Arnell, N.W., Darch, G., Facer-Childs, K., Shepherd, T.G. and Tanguy, M., 2024. Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024.

Oltmanns, M., Holliday, N.P., Screen, J., Moat, B.I., Josey, S.A., Evans, D.G. and Bacon, S., 2024. European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater events in preceding years. Weather and Climate Dynamics Discussions. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024

Ascott, M.J., Gooddy, D.C., Marchant, B., Kieboom, N., Bray, H. and Gomes, S., 2024. Regional scale evaluation of nitrate fluctuations in groundwater using cluster analysis and standardised hydrometeorological indices. Journal of Hydrology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131052

Wunderling, N., von der Heydt, A.S., Aksenov, Y., Barker, S., Bastiaansen, R., Brovkin, V., Brunetti, M., Couplet, V., Kleinen, T., Lear, C.H., Lohmann, J., Roman-Cuesta, R.M., Sinet, S., Swingedouw, D., Winkelmann, R., Anand, P., Barichivich, J., Bathiany, S., Baudena, M., Bruun, J.T., Chiessi, C.M., Coxall, H.K., Docquier, D., Donges, J.F., Falkena, S.K.J., Klose, A.K., Obura, D., Rocha, J., Rynders, S., Steinert, N.J., and Willeit, M., 2024. Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review. Earth Syst. Dynam. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024

Parry, S., Mackay, J.D., Chitson, T., Hannaford, J., Bell, V.A., Facer-Childs, K., Kay, A., Lane, R., Moore, R.J., Turner, S. and Wallbank, J., 2023. Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024

Popova, E., Aksenov, Y., Amoudry, L.O., Becker, A., Bricheno, L., Brown, J.M., Clare, M.A., Evans, A., Evans, C., Fowell, S.E., Jevrejeva, S., Jacobs, Z., Jones, D.O.B., Hibbert, A., O’Hara, F., McKinley, E., Payo-Payo, M., Pearce, C.R., Taylor, S.F.W., Sams, C. and Yool, A., 2023. Sociooceanography: an opportunity to integrate marine social and natural sciences. Perspective Article, Front. Mar. Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1209356

Blockley, E.W., Aksenov, Y. , Campbell, K., Hewitt, H.T., Oltmanns, M., Screen, J.A., and Tsamados, M., 2023. Impacts of Climate Change on Arctic Sea Ice. MCCIP Science Review 2023. https://doi.org/10.14465/2023.reu12.ice

Kay, A.L. and Brown, M.J., 2023. Using sub-daily precipitation for grid-based hydrological modelling across Great Britain: Assessing model performance and comparing flood impacts under climate change. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101588

Robson, J., Sutton, R., Menary, M.B. and Lai, M.W.K., 2023. Contrasting internally and externally generated Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the role for AMOC in CMIP6 historical simulations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0194

Monerie, P.A., Robson, J.I., Ndiaye, C.D., Song, C. and Turner, A.G., 2023. CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea96

Bacon, S., 2023. Arctic sea ice, ocean, and climate evolution. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adj8469

Parry, S., Lavers, D., Wilby, R., Prudhomme, C., Wood, P., Murphy, C. and O’Connor, P., 2023. Abrupt drought termination in the British-Irish Isles driven by high atmospheric vapour transport. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf145

Tooth, O.J., Johnson, H.L., Wilson, C. and Evans, D.G., 2023. Seasonal overturning variability in the eastern North Atlantic subpolar gyre: a Lagrangian perspective. Ocean Science. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-769-2023

Tanguy, M., Chevuturi, A., Marchant, B.P., Mackay, J.D., Parry, S. and Hannaford, J., 2023. How will climate change affect spatial coherence of streamflow and groundwater droughts in Great Britain? Environmental Research Letters. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acd655

Harvey, B., Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R., 2023. Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095

Marcheggiani, A., Robson, J., Monerie, P.A., Bracegirdle, T.J. and Smith, D., 2023. Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy‐Driven Jet in Winter. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102071

Barker, L.J., Hannaford, J., Magee, E., Turner, S., Sefton, C., Parry, S., Evans, J., Szczykulska, M. and Haxton, T., 2024. An appraisal of the severity of the 2022 drought and its impacts. Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4531

Bacon, S., Garabato, A.C.N., Aksenov, Y., Brown, N.J. and Tsubouchi, T., 2022. Arctic Ocean Boundary Exchanges. Oceanography. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27182701

Barton, B.I., Lique, C., Lenn, Y.D. and Talandier, C., 2022. An ice‐ocean model study of the mid‐2000s regime change in the Barents Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC018280

Sainsbury, E.M., Schiemann, R.K., Hodges, K.I., Baker, A.J., Shaffrey, L.C., Bhatia, K.T. and Bourdin, S., 2022. Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?. Weather and Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022